# Middle

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Canonical: https://novigapi.com/learn/middle

A middle is a pair of opposite bets on different lines of the same market that both win if the result lands between the two numbers.

```
break-even middle rate = loss_if_miss / (win_if_hit + loss_if_miss)
```

A middle happens when a line moves enough that you can bet both sides at different numbers. If you took Over 47.5 early and the total later rises to 49.5, you can bet Under 49.5. A final total of 48 or 49 wins both bets. Any other result wins one bet and loses the other, costing you only the vig. Middling is a way to turn line movement into a cheap lottery ticket with a positive payoff in the gap.

## How it works

You need two lines on the same market with a gap between them, such as two point totals or two spreads. The bigger the gap and the more likely the result lands in it, the more the middle is worth. Key numbers matter: in the NFL, margins of 3 and 7 are far more common than 5, so a middle covering 3 is worth much more than one covering 5. The question is whether the chance of hitting the middle beats the break-even rate.

## Worked example

Over 47.5 at -110 with one book and Under 49.5 at -110 with another, $110 on each side:

Outcomes of a two-point middle

| Final total | Over 47.5 | Under 49.5 | Net |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 47 or fewer | -$110 | +$100 | -$10 |
| 48 or 49 | +$100 | +$100 | +$200 |
| 50 or more | +$100 | -$110 | -$10 |


```
break-even = 10 / (200 + 10) = 4.76%
```
If the total lands on 48 or 49 more than 4.76% of the time, the middle is positive EV.

The [middle calculator](https://novigapi.com/middle-calculator) works this out for any prices and stakes, including uneven stakes when the two sides are priced differently.

## On Novig

Novig lists alternate lines as separate markets, each with its own book. A middle on Novig is a Yes contract on one line and a No contract on another, such as Yes on Over 47.5 and No on Over 49.5. Because prices are probabilities, the cost is easy to read: if Over 47.5 Yes asks 54% and Over 49.5 No asks 52%, two contracts cost $1.06 and pay $2.00 in the middle and $1.00 everywhere else, a $0.06 loss on a miss and a $0.94 gain on a hit. That gives a break-even of 0.06 / 1.00 = 6%. Our `/line-history` endpoint shows how far a total has moved, which is where middles come from.

## When it matters

Middles come from line movement, so they cluster around news: injuries, weather and steam moves. They are most valuable on key numbers and least valuable when the gap is a half point on a number that rarely lands. Always compare the true chance of the middle with the break-even rate, not the gap alone.

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