# Prediction markets for sports

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Canonical: https://novigapi.com/compare/prediction-markets-for-sports
Facts checked: 2026-11-12

A sports prediction market lets you trade contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens, on a CFTC-regulated exchange. On the CFTC's list checked 12 Nov 2026, sports venues include Kalshi, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Novig's Ludlow Exchange and Sporttrade DCM. Novig lists sports only and charges takers 0.06 x P x (1 - P). (Source: [CFTC: Designated Contract Markets list](https://www.cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/IndustryFilings/TradingOrganizations?col=Status&dir=DESC&page=1))

Sports prediction markets grew fast in 2026. Some are exchanges you trade on directly; others are apps that route your order to an exchange. The table below sorts them by what you actually pay and who regulates the venue, using each company's own pages.

## Fees

Sports fees, checked 12 Nov 2026

| Venue | Taker cost | Maker | $100 of payout at 50% |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Novig | 0.06 x P x (1 - P); in-game only on game markets | No fee; 25% credit in-game | $1.50 live; $0 pregame |
| Kalshi | 0.07 x C x P x (1 - P), rounded up | 0 by default | $1.75 |
| Polymarket US | Theta 0.095 to 0.0695 by volume | Rebate from $10M volume | About $2.38 to $1.74 |
| ProphetX | 2% of net gains per market; NHL 0.035 taker | NHL 0.01 maker | $1.00 on a $50 win; $0 on a loss |
| Sporttrade | Not published | Not published | Not trading yet |
| Robinhood | $0.01 commission plus exchange fee | Same | $2.00 in its example |
| FanDuel Predicts, Underdog Predict, Sleeper | Not published | Not published | Not published |


## Coverage

Regulation and reach, checked 12 Nov 2026

| Venue | Type | Regulator or route | Availability |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Novig | Exchange, sports only | Ludlow Exchange, CFTC-designated 16 Jun 2026 | All states but NV, AZ, MI; 21+ |
| Kalshi | Exchange, all categories | CFTC-designated 3 Nov 2020 | Not covered here |
| Polymarket US | Exchange, all categories | QCX LLC, CFTC-designated 9 Jul 2025 | US users |
| ProphetX | Exchange, sports | ProphetX LLC, CFTC-designated 11 Jun 2026 | Not covered here |
| Sporttrade | Exchange, sports | Sporttrade DCM LLC, CFTC-designated 30 Oct 2026 | Waitlist |
| FanDuel Predicts | Broker app | CME Group exchanges, CFTC-regulated | All 50 states, per FanDuel |
| Underdog Predict | Broker app | FCM routing to UDX, Kalshi, Crypto.com | Where it operates; 18+ |
| Robinhood | Broker app | Routes to CFTC-regulated exchanges | Not covered here |


## Data access

Data for builders, checked 12 Nov 2026

| Venue | Official API | Free bulk data | What novigapi.com adds |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Novig | Signed trading API, docs.novig.com | Daily CSVs from 3 Aug 2026 | No account, names, intraday history, fair prices |
| Kalshi | docs.kalshi.com | Not covered here | Nothing |
| Polymarket | docs.polymarket.com, docs.polymarket.us | Not covered here | Nothing |
| ProphetX, Sporttrade, broker apps | Not published | Not published | Nothing |


## How a sports prediction market works

Every venue here prices a contract between $0.01 and $0.99. The price is the market's probability of the outcome, and a correct contract settles at $1. You can sell before settlement at whatever the market pays. Exchanges such as Novig, Kalshi, Polymarket US and ProphetX match you with other traders and publish their fees; broker apps such as FanDuel Predicts, Underdog Predict and Robinhood route your order to an exchange.

Novig's own worked examples, per $100 of payout at the 0.06 coefficient: $1.50 at 50%, $1.26 at 30% or 70%, and $0.54 at 10%. The fee is charged to five decimal places with no cent floor, and a pregame fill on a game market owes nothing.

## What to check before you sign up

- **Regulator**: the CFTC's designated contract market list shows each exchange and its designation date.
- **Fee schedule**: look for a formula on the venue's own site, and the date it took effect.
- **State and age rules**: Novig is 21+ and blocks Nevada, Arizona and Michigan; Underdog Predict is 18+.
- **Data**: if you model prices, prefer a venue that publishes an API or trade files.

## Who should use which

- **Lowest published sports fee**: Novig, with free pregame fills on game markets.
- **Sports plus everything else**: Kalshi or Polymarket US.
- **A familiar sportsbook brand**: FanDuel Predicts or Underdog Predict.
- **Builders and modellers**: Novig, Kalshi or Polymarket, which publish APIs; Novig also publishes every trade daily.

Fees are only half the cost. Every exchange also has a spread between the best bid and the best offer, and thin markets can be wide. Before comparing venues, check the depth on both sides of the market you plan to trade, and compare fair prices rather than headline numbers. The CFTC list also includes pending applications, so expect more sports venues in 2027.

## Verdict

There is no single best sports prediction market, but on published fees Novig is the cheapest for sports, Kalshi and Polymarket US are the broadest, and the broker apps trade cost transparency for convenience. Whatever you pick, compare fair prices across venues with the [no-vig calculator](https://novigapi.com/no-vig-calculator).

## Questions

### Which prediction market is best for sports?

On published fees checked 12 Nov 2026, Novig is the lowest for sports: 0.06 x P x (1 - P) on in-game fills and nothing pregame on game markets. Kalshi and Polymarket US cover more categories.

### What are the top 5 prediction markets?

By CFTC designation for US sports, checked 12 Nov 2026: Kalshi (2020), Polymarket US (2025), ProphetX (Jun 2026), Novig's Ludlow Exchange (Jun 2026) and Sporttrade DCM (Oct 2026).

### What are sports prediction markets?

Exchanges where you buy contracts that pay $1 if a sports outcome happens. The price is the market's probability, and the venue charges a fee instead of building a margin into the odds.

### Can you make money on prediction markets?

Only by buying below the true probability after fees, which few traders do consistently. Compare costs per venue with the [Novig fee calculator](https://novigapi.com/novig-fee-calculator) before you trade.

## Sources

- [CFTC: Designated Contract Markets list](https://www.cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/IndustryFilings/TradingOrganizations?col=Status&dir=DESC&page=1)
- [Novig docs: Trading Fees](https://docs.novig.com/fees.md)
- [Novig Help Center: Eligibility & Legality](https://support.novig.com/en/articles/16194031-eligibility-legality)
- [Kalshi: Fee schedule](https://kalshi.com/fee-schedule)
- [Polymarket US docs: Fee Schedule](https://docs.polymarket.us/fees)
- [ProphetX: Fee Schedule for Straight Contracts (5 Nov 2026)](https://framerusercontent.com/assets/0PR4FR5AUuNv0xMjMRGkbz8GZ0.pdf)
- [Sporttrade: home page](https://new.getsporttrade.com/)
- [Robinhood Support: How event contracts work](https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/how-event-contracts-work/)
- [FanDuel news: Predicts expands event contracts](https://www.fanduel.com/about/news/fanduel-predicts-to-expand-event-contract-offering-through-partnership-with-crypto-com-and-og-prediction-markets)
- [Underdog Predict disclosures](https://underdogsports.com/predict)
- [Novig docs: Exchange Data](https://docs.novig.com/public-data/overview.md)

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